The IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Connected Vehicle 2017 Predictions study provides our top 10 predictions for the 2017 worldwide connected vehicle market, intended to highlight key areas of evolution in the worldwide connected vehicle market.
Before I share our top 10 predictions for the Connected Vehicle market, I believe it is important to share with the audience how we developed these predictions. Within IDC, we’ve been tracking the development of the connected vehicle market for some time and from the vantage point of a number of different technology buyers and ecosystem players. These predictions bring together IDC’s research about consumer behavior related to connected cars, smart cities and governments’ role in connected vehicles, and the automotive manufacturers and their supply chains’ part in bringing connected vehicles to market.
As you read through the predictions, you’ll see our balanced, cross-functional approach to this dynamic market, which IDC will continue to refine as the market evolves. The co-authors of this report include myself; Brian Haven, senior research analyst with IDC’s mobility team; Ruthbea Yesner Clarke, research director of the global Smart Cities Strategies program at IDC Government Insights; and Jeff Hojlo, program director who leads Product Innovation research within IDC Manufacturing Insights.
After you read the predictions below, I encourage you to familiarize yourself with some of the new research services we have launched to provide valuable insight in this dynamic market: IDC Manufacturing Insights' Worldwide Connected Car Ecosystem for Manufacturers report series and Connected Car Solutions. These predictions will be further explored in ongoing published research in the coming year.
The IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Connected Vehicle 2017 Predictions study provides our top 10 predictions for the 2017 worldwide connected vehicle market, intended to highlight key areas of evolution in the worldwide connected vehicle market. These predictions reflect IDC's vision for the 10 most important trends in this market over the next 36 months as the connected car shifts from its nascent developmental stages toward meaningful penetration by consumers and businesses and on our roadways. Technology buyers should use this FutureScape to inform their purchasing decisions over the next three years.
Prediction 1: By 2020, connected vehicles will generate 30% of worldwide 5G data traffic due to autonomous driving, safety, and infrastructure communication, outpacing all non-handsets.
Prediction 2: In 2017, auto OEMs will benefit from the development of connected car interfaces after automakers compete to acquire BlackBerry's QNX, accelerating adoption of connected car technology.
Prediction 3: The global connected car installed base will triple by 2019, as connectivity features become standard in the majority of new vehicles worldwide and users acclimate to available services.
Prediction 4: By 2020, connected vehicle ecosystem players that capitalize on monetizing CV data with apps and services will see a revenue margin increase of 5 percentage points.
Prediction 5: In 2017, 15% of cities will use parking to nudge transit behavior by limiting spaces, assigning spots for electric vehicles (EVs) and car sharing, and investing in apps for mobile payments, navigation, and violations tracking.
Prediction 6: By 2019, 30% of urban consumers will use bots or intelligent assistants for multimodal route and journey planning using personal preferences like cost, carbon impact, and traveling with children.
Prediction 7: By 2018, 10% of global central and regional governments will begin to enact legislation for semi-autonomous and autonomous services like platooning, eco-driving, and driverless vehicles.
Prediction 8: By 2019, 25% of model year vehicles will report their own health, request service calls, identify design improvements, and validate warranty claims.
Prediction 9: By 2020, 30% of global line-haul freight vehicles will utilize semi-autonomous fleet platooning for the delivery of goods.
Prediction 10: By 2020, 40% of global automotive manufacturers will be using a product innovation platform to manage the design, development, service, and optimization of connected vehicles with partners.
Automotive OEMs and their ecosystem counterparts face an unprecedented level of disruption in business models, customer expectations, and digital transformation (DX). The coming years will create new opportunities for those companies that make the shift to digital and capitalize on the tremendous potential of the connected vehicle market.
"The connected car will have a powerful impact on our highways and roads in the next five years, and cities and states must begin to plan now for their use, in policy and regulatory decisions as well as technology considerations," adds Ruthbea Yesner Clarke, research director, IDC Smart Cities Strategies.
Guidance for IT and Business Leaders
To learn how you can apply these predictions to your business, please refer to the guidance outlined for each prediction found in the IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Connected Vehicle 2017 Predictions (Document # US41864116).
Click here to learn more about what IDC can do for senior business leaders and IT executives as they move through their digital transformation journey.
As always, we invite you to comment or send along any questions here.