There are numerous issues that national security and public safety officials face, and many of these will result in long-term impacts. This report looks specifically at the challenges that these professionals will face over the next few years.
The IDC FutureScape: Worldwide national Security and Public Safety 2017 Predictions provide IDC's top 10 predictions across the national security and public safety space. These predictions lay out IDC's vision for the 10 most important shifts that will happen in the national security space over the next 36 months and will guide senior government IT and government line-of-business executives in their strategic planning and budgeting efforts. IDC's top 10 predictions for national security for 2017 are:
Prediction 1: Nation states employ cognitive/AI on the cyberfront — by 2020, nation states will automate defensive and offensive cyberoperations using cognitive/AI technologies and manage at least 35% of low-level cyberactivities with cognitive/AI.
Prediction 2: Hacking for hire — by 2020, more than 33% of attributable nation-state hack attacks will be perpetrated by a freelance hacker.
Prediction 3: Budget restricts security for many — in 2017, 70% of government security budgets will be spent on traditional IT as next-gen security investments are limited by economic volatility, skills gaps, and legacy IT challenges.
Prediction 4: Rampant risk growth — risks for identity fraud, ransomware, phishing scams, and physical harm will rise by 2018 as social media and mobile apps like Pokémon GO cater to groups lacking cybersecurity literacy.
Prediction 5: Who's friend and who's foe — exposure to more inherent risks in enhanced security programs will require all G20 countries to implement heightened background checks, improved accreditation methods, and continuous monitoring of employees by 2019.
Prediction 6: Smart Cities support national security — by 2020, 50% of Smart Cities classified at the repeatable level of the IDC Smart City Maturity Model will integrate information collection into national security efforts.
Prediction 7: National governments formalize cybersecurity efforts — by 2020, 80% of nation states will have a stated cybersecurity policy, and at least 30% will have cabinet-level positions focused solely on cybersecurity.
Prediction 8: Encryption becomes endangered — by 2020, 25% of countries will have passed or will have tried to pass regulations limiting access to and the capabilities of public encryption technologies.
Prediction 9: Protecting distributed data — by 2020, 45% of governments will turn to new technologies like DRM and blockchain to protect data as distribution increases.
Prediction 10: Diplomacy by other means — by 2019, cyberattacks attributed to smaller nations will double as countries like North Korea, lacking significant kinetic warfare capabilities, use it to level the diplomatic playing field.
This IDC study provides IDC's top 10 predictions across the national security and public safety space.
The digital threat landscape is changing, and governments are struggling to protect programs, data, and even citizens from the emerging digital threats.
Guidance for IT and Business Leaders
To learn how you can apply these predictions to your business, please refer to the guidance outlined for each prediction found in the IDC FutureScape: Worldwide National Security and Public Safety 2017 Predictions (Document #US41802817).
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